SABIIA - Sistema Aberto e Integrado de Informação em Agricultura (Sabiia)

Ghermandi, Andrea; Nunes, Paulo A.L.D..

The welfare dimension of the recreational services provided by global coastal ecosystems is examined through a meta-analytical regression-based valuation approach. First, we construct a global, state-of-the-art database of stated and revealed preference estimates on coastal recreation, which includes also the grey literature and with the latest entry updated to February 2010. Second, the profile of each of the 253 observations of our dataset, which correspond to individual value estimates, was further enriched with characteristics of the built coastal environment (site accessibility, anthropogenic pressure, level of human development), characteristics of the natural coastal environment (presence of protected area, type of ecosystem, and marine...

Adapting agriculture to climate change

Palavras-chave: Built Coastal Environment; Natural Coastal Environment; Ecosystem Service Valuation; Geographic Information Systems; Mapping Ecosystem Values; Marine Biodiversity; Scaling up; Spatial Analysis; Spatial Economic Valuation; Value Transfer; Environmental Economics and Policy; C53; Q26; Q57; R12.

Ano: 2011

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/108205

Alternative Model Selection Using Forecast Error Variance Decompositions in Wholesale Chicken Markets

Iglesias, Ana; Quiroga, Sonia; Diz, Agustin; Garrote, Luis.

We evaluate the potential impacts and measure the potential limits of adaptation of agriculture to climate change. Pressures on land and water resources are expected to intensify existing risks in low latitude areas – e.g., South-East Asia deltas – and in regions with current water scarcity – e.g. Mediterranean, and create new opportunities in some northern temperate areas – e.g., Northern Russia, Northern Europe. The need to respond to these risks and opportunities is addressed by evaluating the costs and benefits of a number of technical and policy actions. The discussion aims to assist stakeholders facing the adaptation challenge and develop measures to reduce the vulnerability of the sector to climate change.

Tipo: Article

Palavras-chave: Adaptation; Climatic change; Global production; Mitigation; Agricultural and Food Policy; Crop Production/Industries; Land Economics/Use; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; C51; C53; Q17; Q18.

Ano: 2011

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/120200

McKenzie, Andrew M.; Goodwin, Harold L., Jr.; Carreira, Rita I..

Although Vector Autoregressive models are commonly used to forecast prices, specification of these models remains an issue. Questions that arise include choice of variables and lag length. This article examines the use of Forecast Error Variance Decompositions to guide the econometrician’s model specification. Forecasting performance of Variance Autoregressive models, generated from Forecast Error Variance Decompositions, is analyzed within wholesale chicken markets. Results show that the Forecast Error Variance Decomposition approach has the potential to provide superior model selections to traditional Granger Causality tests.

Tipo: Journal Article

Palavras-chave: Broiler markets; DAGs; Forecasting; Market structure; VAR; Agribusiness; Demand and Price Analysis; Livestock Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty; C53; D4; L1; Q00.

Ano: 2009

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/48750

Determinants of Land-Use Change In the United States 1982-1997

Lubowski, Ruben N.; Plantinga, Andrew J.; Stavins, Robert N..

Changes in the use of land in the United States produce significant economic and environmental effects with important implications for a wide variety of policy issues, including protection of wildlife habitat, management of urban growth, and mitigation of global climate change. In contrast to previous descriptive and qualitative analyses of the trends in national land use, this paper uses an econometric approach to isolate the importance of historical changes in land-use profits and key government policies in determining national land-use changes from 1982 to 1997. The policies we examine are the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) and total government payments to crop producers. We estimate a national-level discrete choice model of changes among the major...

Discounting the Distant Future: How Much Do Uncertain Rates Increase Valuations?

Palavras-chave: Land use; Econometric model; Counterfactual simulation; Conservation Reserve Program (CRP); Land Economics/Use; C53; Q1; Q24; R14; R15.

Ano: 2003

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/10714

Newell, Richard G.; Pizer, William A..

Costs and benefits in the distant future-such as those associated with global warming, long-lived infrastructure, hazardous and radioactive waste, and biodiversity-often have little value today when measured with conventional discount rates. We demonstrate that when the future path of this conventional rate is uncertain and persistent (i.e., highly correlated over time), the distant future should be discounted at lower rates than suggested by the current rate. We then use two centuries of data on U.S. interest rates to quantify this effect. Using both random walk and mean-reverting models, we compute the certainty-equivalent rate that is, the single discount rate that summarizes the effect of uncertainty and measures the appropriate forward rate of...

El Paso Housing Sector Econometric Forecast Accuracy

Palavras-chave: Discounting; Uncertainty; Interest rate forecasting; Climate policy; Intergenerational equity; Risk and Uncertainty; D90; E47; C53; H43; Q28.

Ano: 2001

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/10743

Fullerton, Thomas M., Jr.; Kelley, Brian W..

There is comparatively little empirical evidence regarding the accuracy of regional housing sector forecasts. Much of the recent analysis conducted for this topic is developed for housing starts and indicates a relatively poor track record. This study examines residential real estate forecasts previously published for El Paso, TX using a structural econometric model. Model coverage is much broader than just starts. Similar to earlier studies, the previously published econometric predictions frequently do not fare very well against the selected random walk benchmarks utilized for the various series under consideration.

Tipo: Journal Article

Palavras-chave: Applied econometrics; Metropolitan housing sector forecasts; Agribusiness; Community/Rural/Urban Development; Political Economy; C53; R15; R31.

Ano: 2008

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/45534

Entwicklung eines Modells zur Projektion des Wirtschaftswachstums und der langfristigen Nachfrage nach Produktionsfaktoren in Deutschland: unter besonderer Berucksichtigung des informations- technologischen Innovationsprozesses

Danckwerts, Rudolf-Ferdinand; Grossmann, Wolf Dieter; Henne, Wolfgang.

Es wird das Konzept für ein makroökonomisches Strukturmodell mit integriertem Innovationsprozesskern zur Analyse und Projektion der Wirtschaftsentwicklung in Deutschland vorgestellt. Das geplante Modell soll explizit die Auswirkungen des immer bedeutsamer werdenden IuK-technologischen Innovationsprozesses auf das Wirtschaftswachstum erfassen. Das Modell besteht aus einem makroökonometrischen Teil zur Darstellung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung und einem systemdynamischen Teil zur Erfassung des Innovationsprozesses auf mikroökonomischer Ebene. Als Modellteile sind zwei bereits existierende Modelle, das HWWA-Modell und das ISIS-Modell, nach ihrer Erweiterung und Anpassung vorgesehen. Die erforderlichen Modifizierungen, das Verfahren zur Kopplung der...

EU policy reform simulation based on panel data estimation of on- and off-farm labour supply equations for Dutch dairy farmers

Palavras-chave: Zeitreihenmodelle; Dynamische Analyse; Prognose und Simulation; Neue Ökonomie; Technischer Wandel; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; C32; C53; C61; E17; O33.

Ano: 2003

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/26166

Ooms, Daan L.; Hall, Alastair R..

This research focuses on the estimation of labour supply equations for Dutch dairy farmers that are suitable for policy simulations. Data availability leads to the fact that we can not estimate structural labour supply equations. We show how to derive reduced form equations suitable for policy simulations. In this research we use the panel data sample selection estimation approach of Kyriazidou (1997) and Wooldridge (1995) to estimate the off-farm labour supply equation. The two lead to different estimation results and different simulation results based on these.

Forecasting Basis Levels in the Soybean Complex: A Comparison of Time Series Methods

Palavras-chave: Econometrics; Panel Data; Sample Selection; Labour Supply; CAP Reform; Labor and Human Capital; C23; C24; C51; C53; D13; J22; Q12; Q18.

Ano: 2005

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19434

Sanders, Dwight R.; Manfredo, Mark R..

A battery of time series methods are compared for forecasting basis levels in the soybean futures complex: soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil. Specifically, nearby basis forecasts are generated with exponential smoothing techniques, autoregression moving average (ARMA), and vector autoregression (VAR) models. The forecasts are compared to those of the 5-year average, year ago, and no change methods. Using the 5-year average as the benchmark method, the forecast evaluation results suggest that alternative naive techniques may produce better forecasts, and the improvement gained by time series modeling is relatively small. In this sample, there is little evidence that the basis has become systematically more difficult to forecast in recent years.

Tipo: Journal Article

Palavras-chave: Basis forecasts; Time series models; Soybean complex; Risk and Uncertainty; C53; Q13.

Ano: 2006

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/43790

Forecasting Housing Prices under Different Submarket Assumptions

Chen, Zhuo; Cho, Seong-Hoon; Poudyal, Neelam C.; Roberts, Roland K..

This research evaluated forecasting accuracy of hedonic price models based on a number of different submarket assumptions. Using home sale data for the City of Knoxville and vicinities merged with geographic information, we found that forecasting housing prices with submarkets defined using expert knowledge and by school district and combining information conveyed in different modeling strategies are more accurate and efficient than models that are spatially aggregated, or with submarkets defined by statistical clustering techniques. This finding provided useful implications for housing price prediction in an urban setting and surrounding areas in that forecasting models based on expert knowledge of market structure or public school quality and simple...

Forecasting the Path of China's CO2 Emissions: Offsetting Kyoto - and Then Some

Palavras-chave: Clustering; Forecasting; Hedonic price; Housing Submarket; Demand and Price Analysis; C53; R21.

Ano: 2007

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/9689

Auffhammer, Maximilian; Carson, Richard T..

Our results suggest that the anticipated path of China's Carbon Dioxide (CO2) emissions has dramatically increased over the last five years. The magnitude of the projected increase in Chinese emissions out to 2015 is several times larger than reductions embodied in the Kyoto Protocol. Our estimates are based on a unique provincial level panel data set from the Chinese Environmental Protection Agency. This dataset contains considerably more information relevant to the path of likely Chinese greenhouse gas emissions than national level time series models currently in use. Model selection criteria clearly reject the popular static environmental Kuznets curve specification in favor of a class of dynamic models with spatial dependence.

“Google it!” Forecasting the US Unemployment Rate with a Google Job Search index

Palavras-chave: Forecasting; Climate Change; China; Model Selection; Environmental Economics and Policy; Q43; C53.

Ano: 2006

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/7197

D’Amuri, Francesco; Marcucci, Juri.

We suggest the use of an Internet job-search indicator (the Google Index, GI) as the best leading indicator to predict the US unemployment rate. We perform a deep out-of-sample forecasting comparison analyzing many models that adopt both our preferred leading indicator (GI), the more standard initial claims or combinations of both. We find that models augmented with the GI outperform the traditional ones in predicting the monthly unemployment rate, even in most state-level forecasts and in comparison with the Survey of Professional Forecasters.

House Price Prediction: Hedonic Price Model vs. Artificial Neural Network

Palavras-chave: Google Econometrics; Forecast Comparison; Keyword search; US Unemployment; Time Series Models; Labor and Human Capital; C22; C53; E27; E37; J60; J64.

Ano: 2010

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/60680

Limsombunchai, Visit.

The objective of this paper is to empirically compare the predictive power of the hedonic model with an artificial neural network model on house price prediction. A sample of 200 houses in Christchurch, New Zealand is randomly selected from the Harcourt website. Factors including house size, house age, house type, number of bedrooms, number of bathrooms, number of garages, amenities around the house and geographical location are considered. Empirical results support the potential of artificial neural network on house price prediction, although previous studies have commented on its black box nature and achieved different conclusions.

IMPACT ANALYSIS OF FOOD POLICY RESPONSE ON HOUSEHOLD FOOD SECURITY: THE CASE OF SOUTH AFRICA’S MAIZE SUBSECTOR

Palavras-chave: Hedonic Model; Artificial Neural Network (ANN); House Price.; Environmental Economics and Policy; Land Economics/Use; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; C53; L74.

Ano: 2004

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/97781

Vermeulen, Hester; Ndibongo Traub, Lulama; Meyer, Ferdinand H..

This study quantifies the possible income and nutritional impact of the recent commitment by the South African Department of Agriculture to increase budgetary spending on agricultural development. Three levels of models are utilized. The first, a large-scale partial equilibrium model, generated an outlook for maize grain under two possible future scenarios; the first is the baseline scenario under which it is assumed no additional government investment in the agricultural sector takes place, the second allows for the impact of an investment within the maize subsector large enough to increase local maize production by 15% above the baseline. The second model, a rational distributed lag model, links the grain sector to the maize meal down-stream market....

Impact of Fuel Price Increases on Texas Crops

Palavras-chave: Partial Equilibrium Model; Vertical Price Transmission; Household Food Security.; Agricultural and Food Policy; Consumer/Household Economics; Demand and Price Analysis; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; Food Security and Poverty; Marketing; C22; C32; C53; D1; Q11; Q18.

Ano: 2009

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/51396

Eggerman, Chris R.; McMahon, Sarah A.; Richardson, James W.; Outlaw, Joe L..

Replaced with revised version of paper 02/02/06.

Market Impacts of Adopting Herbicide-Resistant Rice in the Southern United States

Palavras-chave: Crop model; Simulation; Input-output model; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; C53; Q10.

Ano: 2006

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/35303

Fuller, Frank H.; Annou, Mamane Malam; Wailes, Eric J..

Herbicide-resistant (HR) rice varieties offer U.S. rice producers a powerful tool for control of red rice infestations. However, improved weed control can shorten crop rotations and boost yields, resulting in expanded rice production and lower domestic market prices. Declining market returns diminish the benefits of HR rice adoption and substantially reduce net returns for nonadopters. More competitive prices increase U.S. rice exports, causing a slight decline in world rice prices. The dependence of the rice marketing loan program on world prices prevents loan deficiency payments from adequately offsetting producers’ market revenue losses. U.S. consumers gain from lower rice prices.

Tipo: Journal Article

Palavras-chave: Biotechnology; Crop rotation; Herbicide resistant; Red rice; Rice; Simulation models; Technology adaptation; Q11; Q16; Q18; O33; C53.

Ano: 2003

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/37859

Modeling Advertising Expenditures and Spillover Effects Applied to the U.S. Non-Alcoholic Beverage Industry: Vector Autoregression (VAR) and Polynomial Distributed Lag (PDL) Approaches

Dharmasena, Senarath; Capps, Oral, Jr.; Bessler, David A..

The non-alcoholic beverage market in the U.S. is a multi-billion dollar industry growing steadily over the past decade. Also, non-alcoholic beverages are among the most heavily advertised food and beverage groups in the United States. Several studies pertaining to non-alcoholic beverages including the incorporation of advertising effects have been conducted, but most of these have centered attention on milk consumption. Some studies have considered demand interrelationships for several beverages including advertising effects in systems-wide analyses. In our analysis, we develop and employ a unique monthly time-series data set derived from Nielsen Homsescan panels for household purchases of non-alcoholic beverages over the period from January 1998 through...

Tipo: Presentation

Palavras-chave: Non-alcoholic beverages; Vector autoregression; Polynomial distributed lags; Beverage advertizing; Directed acyclic graphs; Agricultural and Food Policy; Consumer/Household Economics; Demand and Price Analysis; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; Marketing; C18; C22; C52; C53; C81; D11; D12.

Ano: 2012

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/124363

Modeling the Liberalisation of the Milk Market in Switzerland

Flury, Christian; Mack, Gabriele; Rieder, Peter; Pfefferli, S..

Switzerland aims to liberalise the milk market by 2011. This will result in distinctive changes in the basic conditions for agriculture. The impacts of the liberalisation are investigated with a composite model obtained by combining an optimization model for the agricultural sector and a dynamic simulation model for the milk and meat market. The calculations with the composite model indicate that the milk price depends strongly on the phasing out of market support, while the abolition of milk quotas in 2009 is less decisive. An introduction of a dairy cow premium leads to a higher milk production, especially with abolished milk quotas. In this case the European milk price level represents the lower limit for the milk price in Switzerland. Compared to the...

Modelling Asymmetric Dependence Using Copula Functions: An Application to Value-at-Risk in the Energy Sector

Palavras-chave: Dynamic simulation; Sectoral optimisation; Milk market; Milk quota; Agribusiness; C53; C61; O21; Q13; Q18.

Ano: 2005

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/24507

Bastianin, Andrea.

In this paper I have used copula functions to forecast the Value-at-Risk (VaR) of an equally weighted portfolio comprising a small cap stock index and a large cap stock index for the oil and gas industry. The following empirical questions have been analyzed: (i) are there nonnormalities in the marginals? (ii) are there nonnormalities in the dependence structure? (iii) is it worth modelling these nonnormalities in risk- management applications? (iv) do complicated models perform better than simple models? As for questions (i) and (ii) I have shown that the data do deviate from the null of normality at the univariate, as well as at the multivariate level. When considering the dependence structure of the data I have found that asymmetries show up in their...

Non-Linear Dynamics and Predictable Forecast Errors: An Application to the OECD Forecasts for Germany

Palavras-chave: Copula functions; Forecasting; Value-At-Risk; Risk and Uncertainty; C32; C52; C53; G17; Q43.

Ano: 2009

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/50452

Antzoulatos, Angelos A.; Wilfling, Bernd.

Recent theoretical advances in consumption theory suggest that there may exist predictable consumption surges which, if not taken sufficiently into account in forecasting, may lead to predictable forecast errors. We use this insight to identify economic variables that might help improve the OECD's forecasts for Germany's consumption and GDP growth.